Thirty years ago, the average PGA golfer drove the ball 261.84 yards. Davis Love III was the longest hitter at 283.8 yards.

In 2024, the average distance is 300.9 yards, with Cameron Champ leading the way at a whopping 323.3 yards. Technological advances for both clubs and golf balls — combined with a greater focus on fitness — have turned 7,000-yard tracks into pitch-and-putts for the world’s best golfers.

Thirty years ago, Al Iafrate won the NHL’s hardest shot competition at the All-Star skills competition with a 102.7 mph blast, down from his 105.2 a year before.

At the 2024 All-Star weekend, Cale Makar won with a slap shot of 102.5 mph. Utah’s Michael Kesselring and the Buffalo Sabres’ Tage Thompson recently had blasts of 103.77 mph and 104.69 mph, respectively — the only two 100 mph clappers in the league this season. Last season, the 10 biggest bombers combined for 26 shots at or above 100 mph, with the Winnipeg Jets’ Colin Miller topping out at 102.59.

What gives? Iafrate was using an old-school wooden stick. Makar, Kesselring, Thompson, Miller and everyone else in the league is using a custom composite stick, designed to their exact body and mechanical specifications to generate maximum force. Yet the numbers are comparable. There might be more big shooters in the league — tracking data in the NHL only dates back to the 2021-22 season, so we’ll never know for sure — but they’re not really raising the bar by much. Certainly not to the degree that golfers are. Or tennis players are, for that matter.

In fact, it’s more akin to baseball, in which pitchers seem to have reached the limit of human capability at about 105 mph. More and more pitchers throw hard every year — 203 pitchers averaged a four-seam fastball of 95 mph or more this season, up from 123 just seven years ago — but the ceiling isn’t budging. Since Aroldis Chapman hit a record 105.8 mph back in 2010, only Ben Joyce and Jordan Hicks have touched 105, and only once each (Chapman did it nine times). Of course, pitchers aren’t using any equipment. It’s just muscle and mechanics. The human body can only do so much, no matter how feverishly you exercise, no matter how impeccable your nutritional habits are.

Hockey’s different, right? Shouldn’t there be 110 mph shots by now? Or 120, for that matter? Shouldn’t we be talking about scaling back the technology to preserve the integrity of the game, the way the golf world always is? Like every other sport, hockey players keep getting bigger and stronger. But the low-100s remains the gold standard for shot speed.

It begs two questions: Have we reached the ceiling of what a slap shot can be? And why?

“There’s always a limit,” said Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider, who has reached 95.54 mph this season, in the league’s 91st percentile. “The human factor only allows you to do so much. And there does come a point where we’re not superhuman.”

Alain Haché knows a thing or two about high-speed projectiles. The experimental physicist and University of Moncton professor seemed to defy the very laws of physics in 2002 when he and one of his students sent a pulse of radiation 120 meters at superluminal speed — that’s faster than the speed of light. But Haché is a hockey nerd, too, the author of two books on the science behind the sport. It makes him uniquely qualified to address such an esoteric topic.

He believes the plateauing speeds of NHL slap shots means that we might have reached our technological limit when it comes to hockey sticks. Iafrate and Al MacInnis and Bobby Hull were physical freaks in the wooden-stick days. All the composites have done is let the rest of the league catch up to them.

“What it means probably is the limitation is no longer the stick itself,” Haché said. “Hockey sticks are pretty efficient already.”

A slap shot is pretty simple from a physics standpoint. When a player rears back and fires, he doesn’t aim for the puck, but rather a foot or so behind the puck. When the stick hits the ice, it flexes, or bends. By flexing the stick, a player is storing potential energy into the stick. When the stick unbends and whips back around, it’s turning that potential energy into kinetic energy, sending the puck on its way.

Energy is always lost in the bending and unbending of the stick, Haché said. A perfectly elastic stick would convert 100 percent of a player’s potential energy into kinetic energy, but modern sticks are pretty close. Haché estimated that modern composites convert “maybe 90 percent.”

“So if you improve your stick (even further), you’re not going to gain a lot,” he said. “You’re not going to double the amount of energy you can transfer. So the energy becomes limited by the player.”

In Iafrate’s and MacInnis’ day, the wooden sticks could flex only so much, and there wasn’t any significant variety from twig to twig.

These days, players have all sorts of options with composite sticks. A stick’s flex — or “whippiness,” in the players’ parlance — is assigned a number. A number above 100 is stiffer, a number below 100 is “whippier.”

Zdeno Chara, a nearly 7-foot-tall giant who holds the record for hardest shot in an NHL skills competition at 108.8 mph, used a famously stiff stick. Alex Ovechkin, on the verge of becoming the league’s all-time leading goal scorer largely on the strength of his cannonading one-timer slap shot, uses an extra whippy stick, in the mid-to-upper-70s. Connor Bedard, who doesn’t have the physical stature of either of those players, uses a super-whippy stick in the low-70s. Whatever suits the player’s mechanics best.

Chicago’s Connor Bedard uses a particularly “whippy” stick, with a flex in the low-70s. (Chris Tanouye / Freestyle Photography / Getty Images)

Naturally, there’s more to it than that, depending on how deep into the scientific weeds you want to get. There’s the “bounce effect,” which means a shot will have more velocity if the puck is moving toward the player at speed when he hits it — think of big Aaron Judge squaring up a 100 mph fastball and imagine the exit velocity. Judge wouldn’t be able to hit a ball off a tee nearly as far, or as fast. It’s not a one-for-one factor because it’s not a perfectly elastic collision; if a 60 mph pass from behind the net is one-timed back toward the net, the shooter won’t get an additional 60 mph on his shot. But he will get a bump.

Now if the player is carrying the puck up the ice at speed and manages to get off a slapper on the rush, he will get all that additional speed. Let’s say Connor McDavid is carrying the puck up ice at 23 mph, his top speed so far this season. If he somehow managed to rip a full slap shot at 83 mph, his top shot velocity this season, while the puck was still moving at 23 mph, his shot would go 106 mph. Easier said than done, but maybe Hall of Famer Marián Hossa was onto something when he would blast those slap shots while racing into the low slot during shootout attempts.

The stick — wood, fiberglass, carbon fiber, aluminum, whatever — is just a tool, though. Technique matters more than anything else. But a little muscle mass doesn’t hurt.

“The power comes entirely from the player,” Haché said. “He will rotate his body. He will time the slap shot so that he can put as much flex as he can in the stick.”

That’s why San Jose defenseman Jake Walman says his shots are harder and heavier earlier in the season, while he still has all the muscle he added over the summer. Players typically lose much of their bulk over the course of the grueling season, as weight-lifting takes a back seat to the endless cardio they’re doing night after night. Their shots can fade along with their weight.

But while behemoths such as Chara and Shea Weber (who nearly caught Chara with a 108.5 at the 2015 All-Star weekend) and the 6-6 Thompson have an inherent advantage, size isn’t everything. Timing is crucial. Pick the puck clean instead of hitting the ice first and the stick won’t flex and the puck will flutter weakly. Hit too far behind the puck and most of the kinetic energy will be spent before the blade even gets to the puck.

“Everyone shoots different, but there are certain things you have to do in order to have a hard shot,” said Chicago’s Seth Jones, who topped out at 97.97 mph last season. “You see small guys have hard shots all the time. You don’t need to be 220 pounds and 6-3 to have a hard shot. And the flex is whatever you’re comfortable with. Some guys shoot harder with (a) 100 flex, some guys shoot even harder with a 75. There’s no one way to do it.”

Zdeno Chara unleashes a 108.8 mph slap shot at the NHL’s 2012 hardest shot competition in Ottawa. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

Power in one sport doesn’t necessarily mean power in the other. Walman’s best golf drives go a relatively modest 270 yards down the middle.

But oh, man, can Walman spin the ball.

“I’m hitting down on it pretty hard,” he said.

The Sharks defenseman blasted a slapper 101.6 mph last year in Vancouver when he was with the Detroit Red Wings. This year, he’s topped out at 94.93 mph. And it’s the same body mechanics that allow him to put so much backspin into a 9-iron that allow him to so consistently hit a hockey puck really hard — the way he rears back and opens up his upper body, the way he transfers nearly all the weight into his front foot with vicious body torque, the way he leans into the stick to create all that flex as he hits the ice six to 12 inches behind the puck, the way he follows through with all of his weight moving forward.

“You’re leaning over way more in hockey than in golf,” he said. “I’m bent over, all my power is generating into that one spot in front. … I’m leaning so far over the puck that all my weight is going down into the puck.”

Walman’s always had a big shot, even when he didn’t have the right tools. He said he was pretty much the last kid in youth hockey to play with a wooden stick. His teammates chirped him for it, and his coaches “gave my mom and dad heck” for not buying him a composite stick. But even at a young age, Walman was able to bring out the flex in the wood and launch missiles all day. To this day, he still wonders which kind of stick is really more powerful when leveraged perfectly.

“I’d say the first 50 percent is everything that you do — the power you’re generating, leaning into it,” Walman said. “And then the stick takes over after that. The second half is the technology.”

So while Haché thinks sticks might be approaching the point of perfection, players aren’t so sure. Jones, for one, was skeptical when asked if the NHL had hit the ceiling.

“It depends on where the technology can go,” Jones said. “Athletes are developing every year, we’re getting faster and stronger and bigger, but it’s not just the human body. It’s a little different than pitching, where it’s just you and your arm and the ball. Here, we’re using equipment. Right now, it seems like it maxed out with how light and strong sticks are with the carbon fiber. But who knows in 10 years where the hell technology can be?”

There’s another question that needs to be addressed here: Does any of this even matter?

While MLB teams have high-tech “pitch labs” and huge staffs devoted to squeezing every last bit of velocity and spin out of their pitchers — if a pitcher’s velocity drops a single mile per hour from one start to the next, team medical staffs kick into gear and fan bases go into a panic — NHL players seem a lot less concerned with the science behind the shot.

See puck, hit puck. Puck go fast.

“I honestly have no idea” how the science works, said Edmonton’s Evan Bouchard, who hit 103 in an AHL skills competition.

Most of the biggest shots in the game come from defensemen, and you’ll see them firing off blasts from the point at that night’s starting goalie at the tail end of every morning skate. It’s more of a ritual than a rigorous scientific process, though.

“I just figure the more you do it, the better you get at it,” Bouchard said. “It’s just practice, repetition.”

When told he was in the top 10 percent in the league when it came to shot speed, Seider said: “That’s obviously cool. But that’s not a stat I’ve ever checked.”

See, a 100 mph shot is a great weapon in hockey. But there are several reasons why it’s not the be-all, end-all the way a 100 mph four-seam fastball is.

For one, full-bore slap shots are very difficult to get off in game situations. There’s a reason most of the biggest blasts come from skills competitions with pristine conditions — a free run-up, a stationary puck (the timing is too tricky to risk playing for the aforementioned bounce effect) and no defender. In a game, time and space are often nonexistent.

“The game is just way too fast for taking the time, going all the way to the top and letting one rip,” Seider said. “People are just in your way more. There’s better coverage, opponents have better sticks on you. You hardly ever get off your best slap shot in an actual game.”

Another reason it’s not as critical: Harder isn’t always better. Back when the Blackhawks were winning championships, they had big Brent Seabrook blasting shots from the point on the power play. But light-hitting Michal Rozsíval would get his share of power-play time, too. And his wimpy little shots just seemed to have a knack for getting through traffic, hitting the net and creating rebounds.

“It’s hard to get off a big shot nowadays,” Bouchard said. “Sometimes it’s better to throw a quick wrist shot on net and see what happens. It doesn’t always have to be as hard as you can hit it. That’s not always the best shot.”

A big windup also gives a defender an extra split second to throw himself in front of the puck. That said, Jones posited that one big shot that gets very painfully blocked might lead to an open lane later in the game, as a defender thinks twice about stepping in front of the next one.

But even he acknowledged that rarely happens.

“It’s a competitive sport,” Jones said. “You’re still going to see guys laying out in front of shots to win the Stanley Cup, whether it’s 80 miles per hour or 120.”

After all, physics might be able to explain how flex and torque and weight transfer and potential energy all add up to a classic clapper. But there’s no explaining what drives someone to step in front of one.

“No one said we’re smart,” Jones said with a chuckle. “We’re athletes.”

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Bruce Bennett, Patrick Smith, Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

Sunday in the NFL was all about AFC contenders bullying each other for position in the conference as the season’s stretch run awaits.

The Buffalo Bills showed calm and efficiency while handing Kansas City its first defeat after nine consecutive Chiefs victories to open the season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers proved they still have the formula for containing MVP favorite Lamar Jackson. Their 18-16 victory over Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, enabled partly by two more angst-inducing Justin Tucker missed field goals, lifted the Steelers to 8-2 and third in the AFC.

Finally, the Los Angeles Chargers blew a 21-point lead, then survived to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, marking them as a team in transition away from its disappointing past, willed into relevance by new coach Jim Harbaugh.

The Pick Six column leads this week with an updated look at the Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Chargers — the five AFC teams with seven or more victories and the best postseason prospects. The full Pick Six menu:

• AFC contenders recalibrated
• The Bears’ post-Waldron bump
• Seahawks’ Macdonald asserting?
• Jon Gruden is no Gregg Williams
• Fangio, Kingsbury and Moore
• Two-minute drill: 49ers’ window

1. What a day atop the AFC. Let’s run through the key takeaways.

Let’s begin in Orchard Park, N.Y., where the Bills’ 30-21 victory over the Chiefs marked their fourth consecutive regular-season victory over Kansas City.

• Bills: Quarterback Josh Allen got it right afterward, downplaying the victory because he and everyone else know the postseason is what will matter ultimately, and the Chiefs hold the big edge there.

Buffalo still must prove it can operate in those high-leverage situations under the pressure of an elimination game in January. This November tuneup was a step in that direction.

Case in point No. 1: Trailing 14-13, the Bills ran the final 2:44 off the clock before halftime with a 12-play drive, making a 33-yard field goal as the half expired. Getting points without leaving Patrick Mahomes any time for a rebuttal drive was textbook game management and execution — exactly what Buffalo must do to win these games.

Case in point No. 2: Leading 23-21 midway through the fourth quarter, the Bills put together another 12-play drive, this one ending with Allen’s ridiculous 26-yard scramble touchdown on fourth-and-2.

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!

📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/HjhmBiLbcr

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 18, 2024

“I’m picking Josh Allen if we have a draft now to start a franchise,” an NFL exec texted after this Bills victory.

GO DEEPER

Josh Allen emerges as MVP favorite following signature play in win over Chiefs

Mahomes will have something to say about that in the playoffs, but this Bills team, with its improved run game and calmer feel about it, might be better by then. That’s because linebacker Matt Milano, Buffalo’s most important player on defense, will be returning from injury soon.

• Chiefs: The Chiefs were going to lose at some point, and there was a great chance that time would come Sunday. The Bills were favored.

The path to a third consecutive Super Bowl victory is still there. My prescription for the Chiefs: adding a healthy Isiah Pacheco to the offensive backfield next week while continuing to develop rookie receiver Xavier Worthy, who for the second time in three weeks failed to get his second foot down inbounds on what should have been a rather routine big play.

This was otherwise an excellent game for Worthy. He scored on a 10-yard catch-and-run and held onto the ball after absorbing a big hit following a 31-yard reception.

WORTHY SPEEDS IN 🏃‍♂️ @XavierWorthy pic.twitter.com/l2TicCUNkY

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 17, 2024

The offense is still evolving. Travis Kelce is averaging 8.2 yards per catch, which is down from 10.6 last season, which was down from 12.2 in each of the two years before that, which was down from 13.5 in 2020. The trend for him is unmistakable now. DeAndre Hopkins’ addition at the trade deadline fills some of that void. With Pacheco returning and Worthy emerging, look for coach Andy Reid to hone this team’s offensive identity over the final seven weeks.

“It will look just like last year, right?” an opposing coach said. “Where they run the ball, then they run scramble drill, then they get some key receptions, and if you play too much one-high safety, they throw it up and someone catches it for 35 yards. Remember when (Marquez) Valdes-Scantling dropped all those balls and then made the catches to win the games? That is what they do.”

• Steelers: The Steelers’ 8-2 start is tied for their second-best under coach Mike Tomlin. They own a league-high five victories over teams that currently have winning records (Detroit and Kansas City are second with four apiece, while Baltimore and Tampa Bay are next with three).

“I still think they have to run the ball a little better, but the match of the offensive coordinator and the quarterback are made in heaven, as long as Russell (Wilson) doesn’t decide he has to start cooking all the time,” an exec said.

The Steelers are better in the passing game with Wilson behind center than they were when Justin Fields was in the lineup, but Sunday proved there’s room for both in the offense.

Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith worked Fields into the game for 8- and 13-yard runs on two second-and-long plays after halftime.

Could we see Fields in the red zone next?

Wilson has completed only 7 of 24 passes (29 percent) in the red zone with Pittsburgh. The interception he threw on third-and-goal from the Baltimore 5 could have cost the Steelers the game. Fields has completed 13 of 19 passes (68 percent) without any interceptions in the red zone. These are relatively small samples, but the rushing threat Fields adds to the offense could help in that area of the field, especially if Wilson struggles there.

It’s something to consider as the Steelers, led by a defense that ranks seventh in EPA per play, prove they belong among contenders.

“I’m not saying they are going to advance to the Super Bowl,” an exec said of the Steelers, “but can they advance a round or two? Absolutely, especially if their defense is healthy. I have so much more confidence in their scheme on offense now compared to in the past.”

GO DEEPER

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• Ravens: Lamar Jackson ranked No. 1 on the QB Betrayal Index entering Week 10 because his MVP-caliber production had overcome the Ravens’ poor play on defense and special teams during a 7-3 start.

Against Pittsburgh, it was the Jackson-led offense and those troubled special teams that betrayed a solid effort from Baltimore’s embattled defense.

It’s premature to say formerly all-world kicker Justin Tucker is finished, but he’s definitely slumping, and unless there’s an unreported injury or some other explanation, that is troubling for a Ravens team that realistically needs two of three phases to be solid for the team to deliver on its Super Bowl potential.

The chart above puts into perspective Tucker’s issues this season. The blue bars represent the EPA added through 11 games each season on kicks Tucker made. The red bars show the EPA lost by kicks he has missed. His current season resembles his 2015 season, which Tucker followed with a career year in 2016.

The Ravens cannot take much solace in the thought that perhaps Tucker will bounce back next season. They needed him to be better Sunday, when he missed from 47 and 50 yards in a critical game the Ravens lost by two points. They will need him to be better in the playoffs.

• Chargers: Are the Chargers truly contenders? I see them as a team in the process — not quite there, but closer than they’ve been in years, and headed in the right direction under a coach who knows how to get them there.

They are 7-3, and if their 27-6 lead over the Bengals had not turned into a 34-27 fire drill complete with two missed Cincinnati field goal tries when the score was tied in the final eight minutes, we might be using exclamation points instead of question marks.

Harbaugh has improbably replicated with the Chargers much of what he accomplished in his first 10 games with the San Francisco 49ers in 2011. The table below lays out the similarities, which also include the manner in which Harbaugh has breathed confidence into the highly drafted quarterbacks he coached in both places.

Those 2011 49ers beat New Orleans in the divisional round, a game that validated the confidence Harbaugh had shown in Alex Smith, whose four total touchdowns in that game proved, finally, that Smith could win in the playoffs on the strength of an elite performance. That 49ers team lost at home to the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game.

It’s too early to know how far these Chargers might advance. They still must play Kansas City and Baltimore, plus an improved Denver team. In the meantime, we trust the Harbaugh process.

2. The Chicago Bears played their first game after firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and replacing him with Thomas Brown. All was not lost, even though the Bears lost.

The Bears lost to the Packers (again), and if that’s all that matters to you, skip ahead. But how could it be all that matters to a Bears fan in the context of this season and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’ career?

Chicago changed coordinators and played one of its best offensive games of the season, complete with a two-minute drive to the would-be winning field goal try (it was blocked, of course).

The table below shows the Bears’ offensive production Sunday ranking among the team’s top four performances in 10 games this season for points, yards, first downs, points per drive, EPA, EPA per play, success rate and third-down conversion rate.

We can question why the Bears, with 35 seconds left and one timeout in their possession, did not run one more play to gain a few more yards before kicking for the win from 46 yards. The coordinator change could have worked against the Bears in this situation, given the coordination that goes on between coaches in these situations.

Over the past decade, kickers had made 7 of 8 tries from 45 to 50 yards at Soldier Field in November. Weather conditions were favorable Sunday.

Those were extraneous details on a day when Chicago’s offense made the most of its season-worst average starting field position (own 20.6-yard line) and nearly overcame the Bears’ worst statistical game of the season on defense (-12.6 EPA).

The Bears coaching staff was fired up after the team’s go-ahead touchdown shortly before the half! pic.twitter.com/7QUuHfUqFj

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 17, 2024

Williams set season highs for designed rushes (four), scrambles (five) and combined rushes/scrambles (nine). He scrambled for 16 yards on third-and-8 and for 13 yards on third-and-5. Three of four designed rushes combined for 5.3 EPA.

Brown had Williams under center on early downs 36 percent of the time, a season high and twice the Bears’ rate for the season. He schemed easy completions to D.J. Moore, who caught all seven targets on throws traveling less than a yard past the line of scrimmage on average. Moore set a season high with 56 yards after the catch, including two receptions with 15-plus YAC, double Moore’s previous season total.

Taking the game clock down from 2:59 to 0:00 on the final drive was another plus, highlighted by Williams’ back-shoulder throw to rookie Rome Odunze for a 21-yard gain on fourth-and-3.

None of this was guaranteed. New play callers are usually stepping into bad situations.

While with Carolina in 2023, Brown replaced then-Panthers coach Frank Reich for nine games.

As the table above shows, Carolina’s production when its then-rookie No. 1 draft choice quarterback, Bryce Young, was in the starting lineup wasn’t any better with Brown calling plays than it was with Reich.

That situation was possibly futile. This one in Chicago is more favorable. Minnesota’s defense should present a tougher test next week.

3. A tumultuous Seattle Seahawks bye week produced a signature victory for new coach Mike Macdonald against the San Francisco 49ers. Did it also hint at a new vision for style of play as Macdonald asserts himself?

The Seahawks cut their starting middle linebacker and processed their starting center’s retirement during their recently completed bye week. Then, they defeated the San Francisco 49ers for the first time since 2021 after six consecutive defeats (by an average of two touchdowns) in the series. The 20-17 victory featured an 11-play, 80-yard drive to the winning touchdown in the final 2:38, with Geno Smith rushing for 29 of the final 37 yards.

GO DEEPER

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This was a signature victory for first-year Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald in an up-and-down initial season. His defense tackled better at the linebacker level, a huge point of emphasis punctuated by Tyrel Dodson’s surprise release. His defense also held 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy to 5.7 yards per attempt, the second-lowest figure for Purdy in 37 total career starts. This was the first time since 2019 that Seattle held the 49ers below 20 points.

There was also a subtle shift away from the shotgun formation, including on running back rushing plays. Did this reflect Macdonald asserting some influence over an offense that, through formation and play calling, has been perhaps too strongly oriented toward the pass?

The table above shows the shift after filtering out the final two minutes of halves, when teams are frequently in pass mode or running down the clock.

The pivot toward more run-friendly formations Sunday did not steer first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb toward the running game, however. The Seahawks’ 58 percent pass rate on early downs outside the final two minutes of halves Sunday mirrored the rate during the pass-happy previous four games heading into the Week 10 bye. Kenneth Walker III finished the San Francisco game with only 14 carries even though Seattle never trailed by more than four points.

Might Macdonald, as a defensive-minded coach who came up under John Harbaugh in Baltimore and spent two years with Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, want more carries for his featured back?

The table above shows offensive tendencies for the Seahawks on early downs under all of their offensive coordinators since 2010. Seattle ranks second on the Cook Index this season, with only Cincinnati passing more frequently on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before the clock and score differential exert more influence. That will be one area to watch as Seattle finds its way under its new coach.

4. Jon Gruden’s hiring by Barstool Sports has unleashed a less-filtered, more entertaining version of the exiled former coach. He’s no Gregg Williams, and here’s why that matters.

The version of Gruden fans are getting to see in the R-rated Barstool Sports clips like the one below is closer to the version I knew while traveling with “Monday Night Football” and reporting from the “Gruden’s Quarterback Camp” tapings from 2014 into 2019, when we both worked for ESPN. His love for the game and knowledge of it, his irreverence and his storytelling make him a unique character in the game.

Analytical guys…
pic.twitter.com/RxJRO3lbNb

— Jon Gruden (@BarstoolGruden) November 15, 2024

If you liked Gruden before, you’ll probably love him now.

GO DEEPER

Former NFL coach Jon Gruden joins Barstool Sports

What if you are NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, and you did not like Gruden before? This is where things get interesting, because for as much as Gruden would love to become a head coach again, this Barstool incarnation of him shatters any notion Gruden would ever repent his way back into the league.

Williams’ experience is instructive.

The league suspended Williams more than a decade ago for running the New Orleans Saints’ bounty program rewarding illegal hits, at a time when the NFL was facing concussion lawsuits and was under fire on the player safety front. Williams got back into the league after apologizing profusely, cooperating with the NFL’s investigation and pledging to “focus my energies on serving as an advocate for both player safety and sportsmanship.”

Gruden has not been suspended, but he resigned as coach of the Las Vegas Raiders under pressure following the 2021 release of racist, homophobic and misogynistic emails, at a time when the league was under fire on the diversity front and about to require all 32 teams to implement DEI programs. Instead of cooperating with the NFL and pledging to advocate for diversity, which would have mirrored Williams’ approach with player safety, Gruden sued the league and Goodell, accusing them of selectively leaking emails to ruin his career (including emails mocking Goodell).

4th & 1 and the Chargers ran 14 Blast to perfection for the touchdown https://t.co/VrzcTFCdBn pic.twitter.com/ENo0RUhvdw

— Jon Gruden (@BarstoolGruden) November 18, 2024

“Gregg revived his career because he repented and did community service for Goodell,” a veteran coach said. “If the league waited to get Gruden on the emails (as Gruden has alleged and the league has denied) because they thought he was a thorn in their side by running his mouth, Gruden is reprising what contributed to his demise.”

5. Tale of two play callers: Vic Fangio’s defenses tend to improve, while Kliff Kingsbury’s have headed in the opposite direction. Oh, and let’s not forget about Kellen Moore.

The Philadelphia Eagles held the Washington Commanders at or below season lows for points, first downs, EPA and EPA per play during a 26-18 victory Thursday night. The game highlighted important potential ramifications:

• Fangio vs. Kingsbury: This game bolstered perceptions that the Eagles’ defense is getting better while the Commanders’ offense could be hitting a wall, and that both trends could reflect the coordinators leading each unit.

Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury were key additions for both teams in the offseason. Kingsbury’s offense set a record pace from the start of the season before slowing as quarterback Jayden Daniels dealt with injured ribs and the schedule delivered tougher defensive opponents. Fangio’s defense has gained traction more recently as rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have hit stride.

The chart above illustrates EPA per game for Fangio and Kingsbury over the course of a season for every season they’ve been NFL play callers since 2000 (19 seasons for Fangio, five seasons for Kingsbury). The diminishing late-season returns for Kingsbury reflect his experience with the Arizona Cardinals from 2019 to 2022. Finishing strong this season could help change the narrative for Kingsbury while enhancing his chances of becoming a head coach again.

• Barkley’s brilliance: Quarterback production is typically what launches offensive coordinators to head-coaching opportunities, but as one NFL team exec said of Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, “He is going to get (offensive coordinator) Kellen Moore a job.”

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had a rough game Thursday night, but it didn’t matter. Philly won with its Fangio-coordinated defense and its Barkley-powered offense.

Moore, in his first season with Philadelphia, is leaning on the run more than he did in past coordinator stops with the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys.

The table above shows Moore passing less frequently across three situations.

The 49 percent pass rate on the Cook Index ranks 21st and is below the 51 percent league average on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before score and clock exert greater influence on tendencies.

The Eagles’ pass rate across all downs when the score was tied is 46 percent. That ranks 30th.

Philadelphia has passed just 30 percent of the time on early downs when tied or leading, excluding the final four minutes of regulation, when leading teams prioritize using the clock to a greater extent. That ranks 31st. The rate for Moore in these situations was much higher previously.

• Sirianni’s status: The Eagles lost five of their final six games last season to finish 11-6, then got blown out by Tampa Bay in the playoffs. The current team faces a roughly average remaining schedule (.485) and seems to have a stable formula for winning with its defense and run game.

Coach Nick Sirianni’s 42-19 record (.689) is tied with Sean McVay and John Harbaugh for the third-best through 61 games among coaches hired since 2000. Jim Harbaugh (43-17-1, .713) and Matt LaFleur (43-18, .705) are ahead of Sirianni on that list. Some coaches high on the list did not maintain their early pace, from Mike Martz to Mike Smith to Mike Sherman, Chuck Pagano and Mike Vrabel. But it’s a good spot from which to work, for sure.

6. Two-minute drill: Is the 49ers’ Super Bowl window shrinking?

The supposed Super Bowl loser’s curse hasn’t been so bad for most runners-up recently. Perhaps it applies only to the 49ers.

The 2020 49ers followed the previous season’s Super Bowl defeat with a 6-10 season marked by injuries to quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and pass rusher Nick Bosa. The current 49ers, who missed running back Christian McCaffrey until recently and played most of the second half Sunday without Bosa, have a 5-5 record since their Super Bowl defeat last season.

The table above shows the season-after fates for the last 10 Super Bowl losers.

The 49ers remain only one game behind 6-4 Arizona in the NFC West race, so nothing has been decided yet. But The Athletic’s model has downgraded their chances of reaching the playoffs from 42 percent before Sunday to 23 percent afterward.

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The special teams units have become unreliable, which could reflect diminished depth. Injuries have slowed or sidelined core players: Bosa, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Trent Williams, etc. Can this team rally to make another Super Bowl run, this year or next?

• Broncos breakthrough: Teams hiring coaches with Super Bowl victories on their resume do not always know whether they’re getting the most all-in version of the legacy coach. Sean Payton using a first-round pick on Bo Nix, who was not a consensus top draft prospect, put pressure on the Broncos’ second-year coach to make the selection succeed, especially after the Russell Wilson saga last season.

Are we seeing what it looks like when a top coach is supremely motivated to help his hand-picked quarterback succeed?

Denver’s 38-6 victory over Atlanta was more than just the bounce-back performance the Broncos needed after their crushing defeat at Kansas City on the last-second blocked field goal last week. This game also marked the fourth time this season Nix finished with two or more touchdown passes, no interceptions and a passer rating of at least 115. Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott and Wilson are the only rookies since 2000 to do that four times in a season. None did it five times. Nix still has six more regular-season games to play.

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That’s a good sign for a franchise that has searched desperately for a quarterback since Peyton Manning’s retirement following the 2015 season.

The Broncos’ performance against the Falcons marked their best for EPA per play (0.31) in 142 games since Manning retired, per TruMedia. The 38 points on offense tied for the most Denver has scored in the post-Manning era.

The Broncos won’t be winning the AFC West this season, but they should be honorary NFC South champs. Payton’s Broncos went 4-0 against his old division with a plus-88 point differential. Denver is 2-5 with a minus-36 differential against all other opponents this season.

• Richardson’s return: Anthony Richardson completing all four passes for 64 yards and the winning touchdown in the final minutes against the New York Jets was exactly what he needed in his return after two weeks on the bench. He completed 20 of 30 passes for the highest single-game completion percentage of his career when attempting more than 12 passes. He did it while averaging 10.5 air yards per attempt. His passes, rushes and scrambles totaled 11.7 EPA, by far a single-game high for him.

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• Raiders’ new OC: The Raiders fell 31-19 at Miami in Scott Turner’s first game as offensive coordinator after Luke Getsy’s firing. Las Vegas finished with positive EPA on offense (+5.9) for the first time in 10 games this season, but with the defense turning in its worst statistical showing of the season (-23.2), the Raiders did not threaten Miami. This was only the second game all season in which Las Vegas never led (vs. Carolina in Week 3 was somehow the other).

The following table comes to mind when I think of the Raiders losing to a team with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and multiple game-breaking backs.

What would you expect after systematically downgrading at key skill positions over multiple seasons?

• Rizzi’s special powers?: The New Orleans Saints are 2-0 with an incredible +15.9 EPA on special teams (excluding two-point tries) since special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi became interim coach following Dennis Allen’s firing. The two victories, 20-17 over Atlanta last week and 35-14 over Cleveland on Sunday, marked the first time since 2002 that the Saints finished consecutive games with at least +6.0 EPA on special teams in each. No NFL team since at least 2000 has strung together more than four such games consecutively.

The key for New Orleans? Five missed field goal tries by the Saints’ opponents, including one that was blocked. It’s unlikely Rizzi as head coach has suddenly unlocked the key to making opponents miss field goal tries, so this sort of streak is not sustainable. The Browns and Falcons have missed five of six tries against the Saints over the past two games, creating 14.6 EPA for the Saints in the process.

At the risk of oversimplifying things after New Orleans beat Cleveland in a game Taysom Hill dominated with touchdown runs of 10, 33 and 75 yards, consider the Saints’ QB splits this season. They are 4-4 and averaging 27.1 offensive points per game when Derek Carr starts at quarterback. They are 0-3 and averaging 12.0 points per game on offense in the games Carr does not start. Third-down play has been especially strong with Carr.

• An endorsement for Maye: New England’s Drake Maye completed 30 of 40 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams. It wasn’t enough to overcome Matthew Stafford’s four-touchdown masterpiece as Los Angeles prevailed, 28-22. But it was enough to impress former Rams quarterback Kurt Warner, the Hall of Famer. Warner called this the third-best quarterback performance he’s seen from a rookie this season.

The game that #DrakeMaye played today was the 3rd best rookie QB performance I have seen all year (the other 2 were by #JaydenDaniels)!!! Saw the field, made the throws, anticipated, threw it away when needed to & made some off schedule plays when nothing was there!! #Impressive

— Kurt Warner (@kurt13warner) November 18, 2024

• Lions’ yardage fallout: Detroit’s 675 yards against Jacksonville were the sixth-most in an NFL game and the most allowed by the Jaguars, per Pro Football Reference. The 675-170 yardage differential (+475) was also the sixth-largest in league history and, more notably, the largest since 1979, let alone the salary-cap era, which dates to 1993. The last time a game produced a yardage differential close to this large was when Dallas outgained the Giants 640-172 late last season.

Surely there will be major ramifications in Jacksonville with the 2-9 Jaguars entering their bye week.

• Belichick to Jaguars?: NBC’s Mike Florio suggested Jacksonville could keep general manager Trent Baalke and pair him with Bill Belichick, as the two worked together with the New York Jets in the late 1990s.

Mike Florio reports on Football Night in America that Jaguars GM Trent Baalke could keep his job into next season… and be joined “as part of a package deal” in Jacksonville by Bill Belichick as the new head coach. #NFL pic.twitter.com/qTeYx5pa0O

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 18, 2024

I’ve thought Jacksonville would be an ideal spot for Mike Vrabel, who could bring needed toughness and identity to the Jaguars, plus a working knowledge of the AFC South from his days coaching the Tennessee Titans. Belichick could bring some of those things to Jacksonville as well.

• Jets lose again: There might not be anything left to say.

(Photo of Josh Allen, left, and Dawson Knox: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)

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Of all the silly records that Rafael Nadal has compiled during his epic career, the silliest might be in the competition where it will all come to an end.

Since his debut in 2004, Nadal has played 30 singles matches for Spain in the Davis Cup. He has lost once, 20 years ago, to Jiri Novak of the Czech Republic. The defeat was the start of a tournament that would serve as a yearlong announcement to the world of a teenager fashioned in red dirt, who would become a 22-time Grand Slam singles champion and one of the greatest men’s players.

Two decades later, Nadal is back with Spain, this time in Malaga, for one last go-round. How much will he play? How many matches can his creaky body still take, especially on an indoor hard court? Will he play singles or doubles? Or both? In doubles, will he reunite with his heir, the 21-year-old Carlos Alcaraz, to form the “Nadalcaraz” duo of the 2024 Paris Olympics once more?

Only Nadal and David Ferrer, Spain’s captain, will be qualified to answer those questions. Everyone knows that this banged-up Nadal, who is heading toward the finish line after battling an ailing hip, a sore back, balky knees and other calamities over the past two years, is a shadow of his former self. But even if he does not strike a tennis ball, his mere presence at “that beautiful competition”, as he once described the Davis Cup, is perhaps more sneakily befitting of the end than a farewell at Roland Garros in Paris, where his legacy has stood in statue since even before he won his last title.

GO DEEPER

What’s it like to play Rafael Nadal on clay? We asked the players

Nadal won the French Open 14 times. His clay-court legacy at Roland Garros will stand, seemingly forever, at 112-4. But the Davis Cup also brought out the best in Nadal. He has played in 23 Davis Cup ties, accumulating a record of 37-5 inclusive of his 8-4 record in doubles. Spain won the Davis Cup five times during his career, more than any other country in that period, including in 2004 on the clay of Seville, where Nadal rubberstamped his authority on tennis for the first time.

Rafael Nadal doing his signature trophy bite with David Ferrer (left), Albert Costa (second left) and Fernando Verdasco (right) after winning the 2009 Davis Cup (Denis Doyle / Getty Images)

It all began with that loss to Novak in an indoor stadium in Brno in the middle of the Czech winter.

“I beat him because he was still a kid,” Novak said in an interview in October, from his hometown of Zin in the Czech Republic.

If that sounds like a player demurring in the face of a half-formed legend, Novak is plenty proud of having this small claim to fame. Given Nadal’s career, any win against him is something grandchildren need to hear about. All the same, the Czech, now 49, believes it’s a triumph that requires a bit of perspective.

The tale begins in Auckland, nearly a month before the first-round tie between the Czech Republic and Spain. Auckland, now an ATP 250 and then known as a World Series, was Novak’s favorite tournament. He had won it in 1996 and always came to New Zealand brimming with confidence. In 2004, he won three consecutive matches to set up a semifinal against a teenager from Spain he had never heard of.

Novak wandered the locker room, buttonholing fellow players for any information they had about some kid named Nadal. He quickly learned that he was a newcomer and something of a hot prospect, since he had already cracked the top 50.

Novak was 28 and ranked inside the top 15 in the world. It seemed like a manageable match. It wasn’t. Nadal took Novak apart 6-1, 6-3.

Next, they both made the third round in Australia. Nadal lost to Lleyton Hewitt; Novak to Andrei Pavel of Romania in a surprising reverse. Then came the Davis Cup, the first weekend of February. Some of Spain’s better and more experienced players were injured, so Nadal got the nod, his first for the Davis Cup team.

Once more, Novak liked his chances. Like most Spanish players, Nadal had a game built on and for red clay. He could hit hard but he was largely a defensive player still, who had not yet developed his adult strength and was entering into the pressure cooker of the Davis Cup representing his country away from home.

Novak thrived in the heat and pressure. The team format usually brought out the best in him, especially at home in front of the often rowdy Czech fans. Brno offered him a fast carpet court to zip the ball through the febrile atmosphere.

It all cohered. Novak beat the Spanish phenom in three tight sets, 7-6(2), 6-3, 7-6(3). Novak learned that Nadal was a warrior, but his backhand was then eminently attackable. He saw his opponent as a fellow solid player, early on in his tennis journey. Never in his wildest dreams did he think Nadal was headed for all-time greatness.

“Not like now,” he said.

Jiri Novak blasted and lunged his way to victory over Rafael Nadal in Brno (Joe Klamar / AFP via Getty Images)

He saw Nadal again the next day in the doubles. Novak paired with Radek Stepanek to beat Nadal and Tommy Robredo, also in straight sets.

Two days, two losses. Not exactly a storybook start to a national team career. It was the sort of weekend that could send a teenager into a bit of a tailspin.

Instead, the opposite happened. Early on Sunday afternoon, just ahead of his match, Feliciano Lopez heard Nadal calling his name as he ran after him in a stadium corridor. Jordi Arrese, Spain’s captain, had selected Lopez to play Tomas Berdych in the fourth match, with Spain down 2-1. Nadal would play the fifth and deciding match against Stepanek, if proceedings got that far.

“He goes, ‘Feli, please win this match, then I’m going to take care of the rest of this tie’,” Lopez recalled in an interview in October.

“He’s making his debut in Davis Cup after losing two matches and he was convinced that if I were to win against Berdych, he’s going to win the deciding match.”

Inspired by Nadal’s confidence, Lopez beat Berdych in four sets. Then Nadal came on and beat Stepanek in three. The Czechs weren’t sure exactly what had happened; what had happened was exactly what Nadal had planned.

Ten months later, Patrick McEnroe brought the United States Davis Cup team to Seville for the final against Spain. McEnroe recalled in an interview in October that he and the rest of the team were pretty confident, even though they were playing on the road and on clay, a surface on which Americans have tended to slip up.

Team USA included the Bryan brothers, Bob and Mike, who were on their way to becoming arguably the greatest doubles duo in tennis history. They also had Andy Roddick, then the world No. 2. Mardy Fish, that summer an Olympic silver medalist, in the second singles slot.

The Bryan brothers looked a lock to win the doubles, so if Roddick could win his singles matches, the U.S. would prevail. They spent the week before the event practicing on the slow clay of Seville’s Estadio Olimpico. It wasn’t ideal for Roddick, a classic hard-court kid from Texas, but he remained confident.

The day before the tie began, McEnroe received what he thought was some really good news. Spain had selected Nadal to play the second match on the opening night against Roddick, following Carlos Moya’s defeat of Fish in three sets.

Roddick had just drubbed Nadal at the U.S. Open, 6-0, 6-3, 6-4. Nadal was clearly a talented young player, but slotting him in against the world No. 2 in a Davis Cup final seemed like a big ask. Spain had serious options in Moya and Juan Carlos Ferrero, both French Open champions. They weren’t necessarily in their prime but were pretty close.

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What was Spain thinking?

It didn’t take long to figure that out, even if on the old grainy video Nadal’s arms coming out of his sleeveless maroon shirt are about half the size they would eventually be. His cheeks still have a touch of baby fat. He looks like a boy.

He had his teeth into the match from the beginning, pushing Roddick to a tiebreak in the first set and then winning the second convincingly, 6-2, to level.

More than 27,000 delirious fans were packed into the stadium. They had heard all about Nadal and what he might become. Less so who he already was.

They were playing outdoors, and it was getting cold. The third set stretched on and went to another tiebreak. Then something weird happened.

McEnroe said Roddick liked being coached but always wanted to be left alone on his serve. His serve was his money shot and one of the best in the game. He did not need guidance. Serving at 5-4 up in the tiebreak after Nadal missed one of those lassoed forehands down the line that would mint highlight reels for years to come, Roddick looked over at McEnroe and asked him which way to go. Roddick, who declined to be interviewed for this story, was asking for help on a shot he never needed help with.

McEnroe told him to go down the T to Nadal’s backhand. He did, but missed the tape by an inch. Then Roddick dumped his second serve into the net. He served and volleyed on second serve on the next point to get to 6-5, but he couldn’t catch up with a Nadal drop shot to put the set away. Nadal then rolled winners on the next two points and never looked back, winning the final set 6-2. When it was over, he danced in front of the crowd in celebration.

Rafael Nadal’s defeat of Andy Roddick in Seville was a pivot point in his career (Christophe Simon / AFP via Getty Images)

“He just got better as the match wore on,” McEnroe, who did not share Novak’s measured forecast of Nadal’s talents, said of that harbinger of a night.

“We all knew we were watching someone who was going to be an all-timer. We were like, ‘Wow, this kid is the real deal’.”

The Bryan brothers did their job, conceding just five games to Ferrero and Robredo in the doubles. But With Nadal waiting to play the deciding match, Moya clinched the trophy with a straight-sets win over Roddick on Sunday.

After the loss, Roddick said the atmosphere in the vast stadium was unlike anything he had ever experienced. More than 27,000 people had watched him lose to Nadal.

“You’re busy focussing on the task at hand, then you look up and there are people for as far as you can see just going nuts.”

Three years later, the Americans would get some revenge, beating Spain in a quarterfinal tie in North Carolina. This time, McEnroe knew exactly what he was going up against.

He ordered the construction of a fast hard court that would be installed in an indoor arena in Winston-Salem.

Two weeks before the tie, he tested it out himself. His ball was jumping off the court instead of sliding. The court was too slow. He ordered the manufacturer to repaint it with less sand in the paint, which creates the friction that slows down the ball. He wanted a Rafa-proof court that Roddick and his serve could thrive on.

“Lo and behold, Rafa pulled out, and we ended up beating Spain easily,” McEnroe said.

The U.S. went on to win the Davis Cup that year. The reign would be short-lived. Spain won the next two — and Nadal would never lose another singles match in the tournament.

(Top photos: Getty Images; Design: Meech Robinson)

The WNBA Draft lottery is in the books, setting the order for April’s 2025 draft. Similar to the past two years, there shouldn’t be much drama at the top, considering the only way Paige Bueckers doesn’t get drafted first is if she elects to stay at UConn for an additional season. For the most part, this mock draft doesn’t include players who have another year of eligibility, but I’ve included a couple of exceptions, namely Bueckers, who said she is treating 2024-25 as her final season.

Take a look at the final results for the WNBA Draft Lottery presented by @StateFarm

The @DallasWings will have the #1 overall pick in the Draft on April 14th 🙌 pic.twitter.com/l9C6zpL167

— WNBA (@WNBA) November 17, 2024

This is the league’s first draft with 13 teams, as the Golden State Valkyries will begin play in the 2025 season. However, there are still only 12 picks in the first round because the Las Vegas Aces lost their pick for providing impermissible player benefits.

GO DEEPER

Dallas Wings score No. 1 pick in 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery

Let’s look at which players are the best fit for each WNBA team.

Paige Bueckers | 6-foot guard | UConn

This is a dream scenario for the Wings, who have tons of depth in the frontcourt with Satou Sabally, Teaira McCowan and Maddy Siegrist, but Dallas needs an organizing force in the backcourt. Bueckers has vacillated on the positional spectrum throughout her UConn career, but her playmaking has thrived regardless of where she is placed on the court. She has ranked in at least the 92nd percentile in assist percentage every season while also placing in the 98th percentile or above in assist-to-turnover ratio. Even if Bueckers isn’t a prototypical point guard (and won’t be asked to play that role with KK Arnold and Kaitlyn Chen on the Huskies’ roster this season), her selflessness means she’s constantly looking to create for others.

Bueckers is also an exceptionally efficient scorer who finishes at an elite rate at all three levels (in the paint, midrange and beyond the arc). On defense, Bueckers has shown the ability to guard one through four. She is strong in isolation but a menace as a help defender, reading the floor as well as she does on offense to pick off passes and jump-start the Huskies’ transition attack. The No. 1 recruit in her high school class has been as good as advertised, showcasing a complete set of skills in college that also figures to translate seamlessly to the pros.

I just fell to my knees. THANK YOU LORD! 😭😭😭😭

— Arike Ogunbowale (@Arike_O) November 17, 2024

Olivia Miles | 5-10 guard | Notre Dame

It’s risky to draft for need at the No. 2 pick, and Kiki Iriafen is the higher-rated prospect, but the Sparks need a guard in a bad way, especially since they already sent away their 2026 first-round pick to the Seattle Storm. There is nothing to be gained from another year of missing the playoffs. With Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson already on the roster — as well as a still-in-her-prime Dearica Hamby — Los Angeles needs someone to lead its offense, and that’s Miles.

Although she missed her junior season with a torn ACL (and can technically return to Notre Dame for one more year), Miles has looked spry through the Irish’s first four games, gliding up and down the court and showing off her trademark passing vision. Miles is always looking to generate offense in transition, and she creates windows in the half court with her accurate ball delivery. She keeps defenses honest with her drives to the hoop and seems to have used the year off to refine her shooting stroke, as she’s making 47 percent of her 3s and 83 percent of her free throws. The Irish have generally relied on perimeter talent during Miles’ tenure, but she should have minimal difficulty transitioning into a post-heavy offense with her IQ.

Miles is also a strong defender with good size for her position. It’s easy to imagine her covering ones in isolation but also switching on the perimeter alongside Rae Burrell and Jackson.

Could Kiki Iriafen thrive with the Sky despite their bevy of bigs? (Catherine Steenkeste / Getty Images)

Kiki Iriafen | 6-3 forward/center | USC

This isn’t an ideal fit for the Sky, who already have Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese. However, the franchise is only one year out of the playoffs and can afford to be patient in the rebuild, even if that means overloading in the frontcourt to get another talented player.

Iriafen came on a little late in her college career because of the glut of bigs ahead of her at Stanford, but she excelled when given a regular role. She’s a high-usage, high-efficiency scorer, and she improves when the lights are brighter. Iriafen’s athleticism pops on the floor, whether it’s her first step when facing up, her elevation at the rim or her competitiveness on the glass. Ideally, she’d harness that athleticism more on defense, where she hasn’t been an elite playmaker — the Cardinal’s defense wasn’t noticeably different with her on or off the court. However, her physical tools suggest she can be impactful on this end, and USC will be reliant on that.

Stanford’s history of producing high-level frontcourt players also works in Iriafen’s favor. Before the 2024 draft, WNBA general managers compared her game to Nneka Ogwumike’s. The 2012 No. 1 pick’s college career was far more decorated than that of Iriafen, but they have similar builds and play styles, providing an ideal ceiling for Iriafen in the W.

Dominique Malonga | 6-6 center | Lyon (France)

The Mystics are yet to hire a GM or coach, so the decision-making falls to Michael Winger, the president of Monumental Basketball for the Mystics and the NBA’s Wizards. What we know about Winger from his NBA experience is that he believes in building patiently through the draft. From his two drafts with the men’s team, it’s clear he loves young French prospects, as the Wizards drafted 18-year-old Bilal Coulibaly in 2023 and 19-year-old Alex Sarr in 2024. That makes this the perfect franchise to swing big on Malonga, who will turn 20 before the draft.

Malonga is a special athlete, vertically and laterally, as the first Frenchwoman to dunk in a game. She averaged 11.9 points and 8.9 rebounds in the French league in 2023-24 despite being several years younger than most of her competition, and she improved those numbers to 19.3 points and 13.3 rebounds during the playoffs. She also came off the bench for France during the Olympics as the home team won a silver medal. Her ability to create with the ball in her hands is also unique for a frontcourt prospect.

Dominique Malonga au dunk, c’est trop 🤯#PassionnémentBleu pic.twitter.com/VmVA90et06

— Équipes de France de Basket (@FRABasketball) October 30, 2024

The Mystics already have Shakira Austin as a young center, but injuries have limited her to 31 games through the past two seasons. Malonga’s age and the uncertainty over Austin’s health make taking a shot on the young French star worth it.

5. Golden State Valkyries

Georgia Amoore | 5-6 guard | Kentucky

It is challenging to pick a player for a team with an empty roster, so expect this spot to change significantly until the draft. For now, let’s start with a point guard who knows how to run a pro-style offense: Amoore. Amoore has been confidently operating out of the pick-and-roll for three years, leading one of the country’s best offenses at Virginia Tech. She’s a superb ballhandler and decision-maker, even if her flair sometimes gets her into trouble.

Like another point guard who plays for a Golden State team, Amoore also loves to shoot from long distance, creating massive space despite her small frame thanks to her side-step takeoff. Her percentage has cratered on self-created 3s, though those shots are often forced upon her when the offense can’t generate a better look; however, she shot 43 percent on spot-up 3s over the past two seasons and has great shooting form provided she can limit her volume.

Amoore has been learning from fellow small guard Kelsey Plum for the past two seasons and would benefit from playing for Natalie Nakase, Plum’s former assistant who happens to be another short guard. Amoore is personable and marketable, and she makes a ton of sense as a building block for a new franchise.

6. Washington Mystics (from Atlanta Dream via Dallas)

Sonia Citron | 6-1 wing | Notre Dame

Ideally, Citron would land on a team better positioned to compete immediately — and perhaps someone will trade up for her — but she’s simply too talented and productive to fall below this spot. Citron is a career 37 percent 3-point shooter and 83.4 percent free-throw shooter who can also drive and finish through contact. She rebounds well for a perimeter player and is also a terrific defender from one to three. She’s overtaxed creating with the ball in her hand but is an outstanding secondary option. In a league thin on wings, Citron will have a role to play for years.

The Indiana Fever would be a perfect landing spot for Citron if they are willing to fork over some assets to Washington. As it stands, the Mystics would be fortunate to have her as part of their rebuild.

Maddy Westbeld | 6-3 forward | Notre Dame

The Liberty thrived with a wing-heavy, physical identity last season, particularly during the postseason and especially when they went with three bigs in the decisive Game 5 of the WNBA Finals. Even if Maddy Westbeld seems positionally redundant, New York will find a way to get her on the court given her toughness, ability to defend multiple positions and 3-point shooting. It’s easy to imagine Westbeld eventually taking over for Kayla Thornton as an interior defender — nobody gave Elizabeth Kitley more difficulty than Westbeld during the All-American’s 2023-24 season. Although Westbeld doesn’t have noteworthy athleticism, her production has never suffered for it.

Westbeld is also an intuitive offensive player who moves off the ball well, a necessity in New York’s system. If worse comes to worst and Westbeld’s injury issues to start the season linger, New York has proved it’s among the best places to rehab in the WNBA.

8. Indiana Fever

Te-Hina Paopao | 5-9 guard | South Carolina

The Fever need to improve their defense and perhaps find a combo forward who can improve on what NaLyssa Smith brought last season. However, that type of player isn’t available at this point in the draft, so why not double down on what Indiana does well? The Fever already have offensive firepower with the backcourt of Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell, and bringing in Paopao as a sub for either keeps the level high. Paopao is one of college basketball’s most outstanding shooters in recent memory; she made 46.8 percent of her attempts last season, leading the nation. She also runs a mean pick-and-roll, reads the floor well, has a developing floater and generally executes everything you would want from a lead guard or two-guard offensively.

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Defensively, being at South Carolina has worked wonders for Paopao. She has improved at staying in front at the point of attack, and she positions herself well in help defense. Paopao isn’t the type of player who will single-handedly raise Indiana’s defensive floor, but she can earn minutes by avoiding mistakes.

But this pick isn’t about the defense. Just imagine trying to defend a Clark/Aliyah Boston pick-and-roll with Mitchell and Paopao surrounding them. It seems physically impossible.

Shyanne Sellers might be a steal late in the first round. (Aaron J. Thornton / Getty Images)

9. Seattle Storm

Shyanne Sellers | 6-2 guard/wing | Maryland

The Storm need some young talent with upside. They have Jordan Horston but no one else who is realistically on the front end of their development curve now that Nika Mühl is out for the season with a torn ACL. This feels like an opportune moment to bring in Sellers, a player with great athleticism and a high IQ. Sellers is a dynamic downhill attacker who has a good-looking jump shot. She has incredible pace in the open court and is the foundation for Maryland’s transition attack. Her point guard reps in college have been useful, but at 6-2, she can play multiple positions, giving her additional utility in the pros. The sky is the limit with Sellers.

Saniya Rivers | 6-1 guard/wing | NC State

The early returns from Rivers’ senior season have indicated she is best with the ball in her hands as the lead guard, so it might seem strange to attach her to Miles in Chicago. However, Miles is capable of playing off the ball — and she will have to do plenty of that with Hannah Hidalgo this season — allowing Miles and Rivers opportunities to run the point. Furthermore, Marsh comes from Las Vegas, which used multiple ballhandlers (Plum, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young).

Joining Marsh also explains why this fit makes sense for Rivers. She is hyper-athletic and gets into the paint with ease, and being disruptive doesn’t begin to describe the defensive havoc she can wreak. But her jumper and decision-making need some work. Rivers’ physical tools bring to mind a younger Young. Marsh helped turn the Aces star into an efficient offensive player, and that will be the task with Rivers.

Charlisse Leger-Walker | 5-10 guard | UCLA

The Lynx got quality play out of their lead guard spot from Courtney Williams, but they could still use a true point guard to set up their scorers. Leger-Walker is a wonderful passer in the half court — her skip passes out of the pick-and-roll demand multiple rewatches. She’s been inconsistent as a shooter, but perhaps sitting out for a year with a torn ACL will force her to develop her jumper. Leger-Walker hasn’t brought much to the floor as a defender, but Minnesota drafted Alissa Pili last year, so that doesn’t seem to be a prerequisite.

12. Phoenix Mercury (swap with New York)

Aneesah Morrow | 6-1 forward | LSU

Phoenix played most of last season without a true power forward, which creates an opening for Morrow. She puts pressure on the basket, rebounds the ball better than almost anyone at her position, consistently makes plays on defense and gets buckets no matter who else is on the court. Those attributes would benefit the Mercury. The one issue for Morrow in Nate Tibbetts’ system is that she doesn’t take or make 3s, but she does so many other things well that it would be hard to pass on her at the end of the first round.

Also in consideration: South Carolina’s Raven Johnson, Kansas State’s Ayoka Lee and Ole Miss’ Madison Scott.

(Top photo: Aaron J. Thornton / Getty Images)

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — New York Jets players and coaches often talk about how they can’t resort to finger-pointing, even when things are at their worst — which they are right now.

There was a play late in the fourth quarter on Sunday, a coverage bust that fit perfectly in a season of misery and befuddlement. But that play was set up by a decision made on the other side of the ball a few minutes earlier.

It felt like a game the Jets were going to win. They stole momentum back at the start of the second half, with a takeaway on a forced fumble and then a Breece Hall touchdown a few plays later. They went up 24-16 on a Kenny Yeboah touchdown reception early in the fourth quarter. The Colts cut it to a two-point game, and then Aaron Rodgers worked the offense up the field, killing the clock and getting them to the Colts’ 25-yard-line with 3:30 left. On fourth-and-2, Rodgers went to the line of scrimmage. Jets cornerback D.J. Reed thought they were going to go for it. Instead, Rodgers tried to draw the Colts offsides. It didn’t work, so the Jets called timeout. Anders Carlson converted a 35-yard field goal. Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich considered this a show of confidence in a Jets defense that, many times over the 2022 and ’23 seasons, did its job at the end of games.

“When we saw the field goal team go on we were all happy like: Let’s do what we do,” Reed said. “The last three years, that’s what we did.”

That’s not what they did on Sunday. This is 2024.

On the second play of the drive, Anthony Richardson aired it out for Alec Pierce down the right sideline. Cornerback Sauce Gardner passed the route off to safety Jalen Mills, who was supposed to be in position to prevent Pierce from catching the ball, possibly even intercepting it. Instead, Pierce easily caught it, a 39-yard gain.

At the end of the play, Gardner ran over and pointed at Mills. Literal finger-pointing. Twice.

What a pass by Anthony Richardson! @Colts are threatening 👀

📺: #INDvsNYJ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/xTTdoEKmMs

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024

“It’s a play that shouldn’t have happened,” Gardner said.

A few plays later, Richardson ran for a 4-yard touchdown. The Colts didn’t convert their two-point conversion but it didn’t matter. The Jets offense, without any timeouts, fumbled on the first snap then killed the clock on second down. Rodgers was sacked on third down and the clock ran out. The Jets, in embarrassing fashion, lost another game they should have won. Final score: 28-27. The Jets’ record: 3-8. The Jets’ season: in the toaster.

“It’s tough to process,” Reed said. “That’s what your play for. You want to play meaningful football in November, December, January … We want to stick together. We have to stick together. The outside world is going to be pointing fingers — and understandably so — but the guys in the locker room, we have to stick together and I feel like we have the right character guys to do that.”

In what has turned into arguably the most disappointing season in Jets history, it is clear that even if the Jets have the right character guys, they don’t have the right guys.

The Jets are at the point of the season when their offense is being booed off the field at their home stadium in the first quarter. The point that, when fans do cheer, it’s typically in a mocking tone — like when, on Sunday, the Jets offense converted its first first down just as the first half was about to end, or when Gardner made an impressive tackle in the second quarter after struggling for weeks to get opponents on the ground.

They were supposed to combine a winning defense with one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks to become a bonafide playoff contender. Instead, since Robert Saleh was fired and replaced by Ulbrich, the defensive coordinator, the defense has looked like one of the NFL’s worst, allowing 26.2 points per game, failing in fundamentals and crumbling in key moments.

“I have noticed that,” Reed said. “The last couple games we haven’t played to our standard on defense. We’ve given up touchdowns, or given up explosive plays. I can’t really account for what it is. Coach Ulbrich does have a lot on his plate but he’s a grown man and he can handle it. I just think it comes down to executing and playing our role. I feel like we’re not executing, no matter what we’re being told to do, we’re just not executing on the field.”

GO DEEPER

What happens if Jets owner Woody Johnson leaves for the Trump administration again

And there’s the Rodgers part of it all. Earlier in the week, he was asked if he still planned on returning in 2025, as he stumbled to the end of the worst season of his career. He responded, tepidly: “Yeah, I think so.”

Sunday’s showing did nothing to make it feel like Rodgers returning to the Jets would be a good thing, for team or player. The 40-year-old didn’t even surpass 100 passing yards until the third quarter. He’s looked unwilling (or unable) to throw the ball down the field, and his excuses for that — last week he said the offensive line needs to block for longer, Sunday he blamed his lack of deep throws on the Colts playing a two-high defense — aren’t quite up to snuff.

Over the last two weeks, Rodgers is 1 of 6 on passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield, the one completion coming on a nice sideline throw to Xavier Gipson in Sunday’s fourth quarter. Those moments have been few and far between, and the Jets offense has somehow become less explosive since trading for Davante Adams. Rodgers finished Sunday with 184 yards on 29 pass attempts.

Ulbrich was asked if Rodgers’ reticence is holding the Jets offense back. He deflected in his response.

“We’ll take a hard look at the tape,” Ulbrich said. “There’s an element to, of course, injury is going to hamper anybody in these types of situations, but it never comes down to one man. It comes down to protection, receivers, running backs, the running game, all those things. So, I know Aaron would love to be playing better, but it’s not just him, it’s all of us.”

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Rodgers simply doesn’t look like Rodgers anymore, even if no one around the Jets organization wants to admit it publicly.

“Yeah, I mean, it wasn’t my best performance,” Rodgers said. “I felt like I did a few good things, but unfortunately in this game sometimes you have to make a decision and pick a side and sometimes you pick the right side and sometimes you pick the wrong side … It’s just one of those weird things. Sometimes you pick the right side and get lucky and sometimes you don’t and you have to look at the damn tablet and see a guy was open.”

He was asked about that sort of struggle being something he hadn’t dealt with before — he pushed back at the assertion.

“It happens all the time,” Rodgers said. “It does happen all the time, but sometimes you just pick it right and you get on a roll and seem to pick it right all the time. Sometimes it’s a hunch. I’m going through progressions. Sometimes in those two situations I would’ve had to have skipped over a progression and just trust the guy as being open. Sometimes that hits, sometimes you wish you would have just stayed with the progression. It’s the beauty and the frustration of the game.”

The Jets are 3-8. Their playoff hopes, if there are any, range from one to four percent, depending on your source. There is plenty to be frustrated about. And none of it is pretty.

“It’s very hard to fathom,” Reed said. “I’m still processing it right now.”

(Top photo: Al Bello / Getty Images)

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — A San Francisco 49ers team that routinely rolled to big victories in 2023 can’t seem to pull away from anyone this season.

They have no knockout punch.

In Week 8, they had a 27-10 lead entering the fourth quarter, then had to hang on for dear life as the Dallas Cowboys mounted a furious comeback. Last week, they had control in the third quarter until a botched punt return let the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back into the contest, requiring a last-minute 49ers drive for the win.

And on Sunday, the 49ers again seemed to be cruising to victory after the defense stonewalled the Seattle Seahawks on fourth-and-1 with 3:56 remaining. Fred Warner, Dee Winters, Ji’Ayir Brown and the rest of the players ran off the field beating their chests and pumping their fists. After all, the 49ers were ahead by four points and just needed two or three first downs to salt away a valuable division win.

Defense said NOPE.

📺 #SEAvsSF on FOX
NFL+ // https://t.co/KTh0i4nCVJ pic.twitter.com/IQd1AhOpwR

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 17, 2024

Instead, the 49ers punted from Seattle’s 42-yard line — a touchback — then watched Geno Smith and company drive 80 yards in 2:26 to give Seattle a 20-17 win. The loss drops the 49ers to 5-5 and puts them in a three-way tie behind the Arizona Cardinals (6-4) in the NFC West. As it stands now, they trail the Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Rams and Seahawks in the race for the NFC’s final wild-card spot.

GO DEEPER

Last-minute Geno Smith TD seals Seahawks’ 20-17 win over 49ers: Takeaways

Though Smith converted two third downs and scrambled for 29 yards on the game-winning drive, Kyle Shanahan seemed more disappointed that his offense couldn’t put the game away when it had a chance.

Christian McCaffrey gained 11 yards on the play that followed San Francisco’s fourth-down stop. But he lost a yard the next time he got the ball, Brock Purdy sailed a pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel Sr. on second down, then threw to Jauan Jennings well short of the sticks on third down.

“I thought we had a chance to put them away a number of times,” said Shanahan, something he’s repeated throughout the season. “We let them hang around. You let people hang around, that’s what happens.”

GENO!!!! TD @SEAHAWKS!!

📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/ATSZeKJaOe

— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024

The loss came with several Pro Bowlers either watching from the sideline or playing with injuries.

George Kittle, the team’s leader in touchdowns and receiving yards, missed the game with a hamstring injury and his replacement, Eric Saubert, was added to the injury report with an illness shortly before kickoff. The 49ers responded by inserting offensive tackle Jaylon Moore as an extra tight end at times. And while the team gained a respectable 131 rushing yards — 40 of them by Purdy — both the running and passing games lacked pop.

Left tackle Trent Williams said he nearly sat out the contest with a bone bruise in his left ankle area. He got a pain-killing injection before kickoff that helped, but he said he didn’t have his usual power on running plays or on defending the bull rush.

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On defense, meanwhile, the 49ers played the last quarter and a half without Nick Bosa, who came off the field one play after sacking Smith in the third quarter. Bosa, who was dealing with a hip/oblique injury on one side of his body last week in Tampa, said he overcompensated and ended up having the same issue on the other side. He said he was concerned he might miss his first full game since the 2022 season — a loss to the Atlanta Falcons — and noted how frustrating it was to watch Seattle’s final drive from the sideline.

“Brutal. Brutal,” Bosa said. “It’s the most important time of the game for me to be out there and I wasn’t able to be there.”

Finally, though McCaffrey got his usual allotment of snaps for the second straight week, he suggested he hasn’t fully returned to form after his multi-month bout with Achilles tendonitis.

“It’s not an excuse,” said McCaffrey, who had 106 combined yards but no touchdowns. “I know I can be a lot better. I can feel it.”

The 49ers won their earlier matchup with Seattle despite a costly special teams miscue, a 97-yard kickoff return by the Seahawks that got them back into the game. The 49ers didn’t have any of their usual special teams bungles Sunday, but they also didn’t have any explosive plays on offense.

In Week 6, they had a pair of 76-yard gains and two others greater than 25 yards. On Sunday, their longest play was a 22-yard pass to Jennings, who caught 10 of 11 targets for 91 yards.

“It had to be Jennings to finish this drive!” 🤩 @49ers take the lead!

📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/FVLQTw8PK7

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024

After 10 games, it’s now clear the 49ers are lacking something, something that goes beyond the personnel that has been missing from various contests.

Last year they went through a midseason slide during which, especially in a Week 8 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, it looked as if they were running in knee-deep sand.

But they snapped out of their brief funk during the back stretch of the season. This year’s team has yet to fully come alive, at least to the level of last year’s club. The only game in which the 49ers looked like the most dominant team in the NFC was their win over the Cowboys, and that only lasted a quarter.

Last year’s team lost just one division game, the meaningless season finale to the Rams, and wrapped up the NFC West by mid-December. This year’s squad already has lost to each of its division foes and has done so in a frustratingly similar fashion — by blowing a fourth-quarter lead.

“It’s infuriating, honestly,” Warner said. “It’s not like us. But that’s just what we’ve shown this year. So I guess until we stop doing that, that’s who we are.”

(Photo of Geno Smith: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)

Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur has been banned for seven matches by the Football Association (FA) and handed a £100,000 fine over comments he made about his team-mate Son Heung-min.

Bentancur said that South Korea international Son and his cousins “all look the same” on television programme Por La Camiseta, which is broadcast in his native Uruguay, in June. The 27-year-old later apologised on social media.

Bentancur was charged by the FA in September and was accused of acting “in an improper manner and/or used abusive and/or insulting words and/or brought the game into disrepute.” The FA added in a statement that the charge further constituted an “aggravated breach” under FA Rule E3.2, as it allegedly involved references to nationality, race, or ethnic origin”.

The Athletic asked Son during a press conference later in September about his reaction to the charge and his relationship with Bentancur.

“The process is with the FA and that’s why I can’t say much about it, but I love Rodrigo,” Son said. “I repeat: I love him, I love him.

“We had a lot of good memories, we started playing together when he joined. He apologised straight afterwards, you know, when we had a holiday.

“I was at home and I didn’t even realise what was going on. He just sent me a long text message that you could feel was coming from his heart. Afterwards, when he came back to the training ground for pre-season, he just like felt really sorry and almost like cried when he apologised publicly and also personally as well. It felt like he feels really sorry.”

Bentancur denied the FA charge but an independent regulatory commission found him guilty and decided the punishment following a hearing.

The Uruguay international will miss Tottenham’s upcoming Premier League games against Manchester City, Fulham, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Southampton and Liverpool and their Carabao Cup quarter-final tie with Manchester United in December. He will still be available to play for them in the Europa League.

(Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Week 11 Sunday brought a few blowouts and some key missed kicks, but it was highlighted by a couple of classic rivalry games: the Bills knocking off the Chiefs, the Packers surviving in Chicago and the Steelers outlasting the Ravens.

STEELERS DENY THE GAME-TYING 2-PT CONVERSION.

📺: #BALvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/Vzrz2wUyIu

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024

The AFC North is heating up, the Packers might be readying for another late-season run and the race for the AFC’s final playoff spot is wide-open. The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.

In your mind, does the Chiefs’ loss in Buffalo (paired, perhaps, with the Ravens’ loss in Pittsburgh) change the way you view the AFC hierarchy?

Jones: Things are deliciously intriguing at the top of the AFC. The Chiefs beat the Ravens to start the season, the Ravens thumped the Bills in Week 4, and now the Bills deliver a convincing win over the previously undefeated Chiefs on the same day that the Ravens lose to the Steelers (who will play Kansas City in Week 17 but will not face Buffalo this regular season). What does it tell us? Any of these top teams are capable of beating the other, and this race for the top seed and home-field advantage could come down to the wire. I still have the Chiefs as the top team in the conference — I will not bet against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the postseason. From there, I’ll still go Baltimore as No. 2 despite the tough divisional loss to Pittsburgh — a game it should have won. From there, Buffalo No. 3, edging the Steelers out by a nose.

Nguyen: Not really. The Bills won a competitive game at home. The Steelers won a close game in which Justin Tucker missed two field goals. We have to remember there is a certain amount of luck in every game, no matter how good teams are. I’ll get concerned if the Chiefs and Ravens drop another game next week, but losing in competitive games against very good opponents shouldn’t drastically change how we view teams. The Bills do get a bump up in my book, but until they can beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, I still think the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC. The Bills won similar games against the Chiefs in the regular season in 2022 and ’23, and the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl.

Pompei: The Bills have won six straight, which makes them the hottest team in the AFC, if not the best. Week by week, they have continued to build their case. The Steelers have the second-longest win streak in the AFC with five straight victories, which means they should be in the conversation about the best team in the AFC North. But the Chiefs, despite their loss, still deserve as much respect as any team. Just because they aren’t the 1972 Dolphins doesn’t mean they won’t be in the Super Bowl — or win the Super Bowl again. And as much as any of the contenders, the Chiefs have the potential to get better as the season goes on, as they are expected to have some important players return from injuries.

Does Sunday’s wild win in Pittsburgh tell us more about the Steelers or Ravens when it comes to AFC contenders?

Jones: I think it tells a lot about both teams. Let’s start with the Steelers. As impressive as their start to 2024 was, I tried to reserve judgment until they played a top-level team. Outside of Atlanta, the Chargers and Washington, the Steelers hadn’t played any other teams with winning records; none of their first nine opponents were considered elite. Baltimore certainly fit the “elite” billing, as it boasted the league’s most prolific offense, led by two MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. But the Steelers defense largely held Baltimore in check — that juggernaut Ravens offense had nearly 120 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns than its season averages. Henry entered Sunday averaging 112 yards per game and managed only 65 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. The Steelers also forced three turnovers. They did receive a gift in the form of two missed Justin Tucker field goals, but Pittsburgh made plays on both sides of the ball, displayed grit as all great teams do, and proved that it is indeed one of the best teams in the AFC.

As far as Baltimore goes: This game featured all kinds of elements that should spark concern within the organization. Tucker’s misses stood out, but they certainly weren’t the only reason the Ravens lost. Three turnovers and 12 penalties also factored heavily. Baltimore has a talented team, but the Ravens can’t expect to win games against elite opponents if they repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot. This loss will come back to haunt the Ravens when it’s time for playoff seeding.

Nguyen: This game told me a lot about the Steelers; it was just another ode to the culture that Mike Tomlin has built in Pittsburgh. This was an ugly, hard-hitting game with intensity. The game was won on plays that were finished with a little more effort, like Nate Herbig’s strip of Derrick Henry or rookie Payton Wilson ripping an interception away from Justice Hill on a downfield route. The Ravens drove the ball into Pittsburgh territory several times, but the Steelers dug their heels in and kept the Ravens out of the end zone all but once. They got some help with two Tucker misses, but I was impressed with the Steelers’ resolve. I think the Ravens are the better team, but that goes out of the window when these rivals play each other.

Pompei: I’m not sure we learned much more about either team in what was a typical AFC North November slugfest. Both are quality teams, though they didn’t always look like it on Sunday. If the Steelers and Ravens played next week, the Ravens might win 18-16. And then if they played again the week after, the Steelers might win 18-16. It’s that kind of rivalry. We will learn a lot more Dec. 21 when these teams meet in Baltimore in a game that could decide the AFC North. Then again, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them paired in the playoffs. If that scenario plays out, we will be in for a treat.

Does Bo Nix have a chance to challenge Jayden Daniels for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors?

Jones: Daniels got off to an impressive start to the season; he displayed great accuracy as a passer and fantastic running ability, and Washington looks like it has a really good chance to break its four-year playoff drought. But Daniels has cooled off a bit ever since that rib injury, and Washington has now lost two straight — just a hiccup, or are defenses starting to figure out Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense?

Meanwhile, Nix is surging. He looks so comfortable in Sean Payton’s offense and has multiple-touchdown performances in three of his last four games. This week, he had both his first 300-yard outing and his first four-touchdown performance to help the Broncos improve to 6-5. If he keeps delivering performances like this and helps Denver snap its nine-year playoff drought while Daniels struggles to recapture his early season form, Nix certainly could challenge.

Nguyen: It will be an interesting battle as we go down the stretch. Kingsbury’s offenses have a trend of starting hot and then falling off toward the end of the year. Some of that has to do with quarterbacks (Kyler Murray then, Daniels now) taking too much of a burden as runners and scramblers, and defenses catching up to the simplicity of the offense. We’ll see if that trend continues with Washington, or if he can evolve his offense to avoid a fall-off.

Nix looks to be getting better every week, and Payton is dialing up plays to get guys wide open for him. Payton has obviously had a longer track record of success, so I feel a bit better about the Broncos offense continuing to get better, which would give Nix a strong chance of winning Rookie of the Year. I believe Daniels is the better player, but stats and offensive success will obviously have a huge impact on who wins the award.

Pompei: The award will be decided over the next six games, but Daniels has a considerable lead. If Nix were a stock, analysts would rate him a “buy” because he has considerable growth potential, as we’ve seen in recent games. That isn’t to say Daniels would be a “sell.” He’s a “buy” as well. It’s going to be difficult for Daniels to be as impressive in the final six games as he was in the first 11. Daniels’ last two games probably were his worst two, but he is very capable of finishing strong. These are two solid young quarterbacks who should win a lot of games in the NFL.

Last year, the Packers came on late in the year and ended up winning a playoff game — and almost knocking off the 49ers in the divisional round. Does this year’s team profile similarly?

Nguyen: This Packers team is better than last year’s edition. The defense isn’t elite, but is an improved unit under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Last season, the offense took off down the stretch. This offense hasn’t looked as explosive as last season, but the Packers have dealt with a lot of injuries — including Jordan Love missing multiple games. If the Packers’ passing game improves, they have the defense to make them a legitimate contender in the NFC. The inconsistency of Love and his promising group of young pass catchers is maddening but they feel close to a breakout. To be able to still win seven games with the injuries and offensive inconsistencies shows that this team has many avenues to winning games.

Jones: I think a lot of it depends on Love. He was fantastic down the stretch last season. This year, however, he’s struggling with ball security, having thrown at least one interception in every game he’s played in this season. This is right about the time he heated up last year, throwing 18 touchdown passes and one interception over the last eight regular-season games (Green Bay won six of those games). I think this team has the ability to contend in the playoffs. The Packers offense is more well-rounded, and their defense is better. But Love is the key to how far they can go.

Pompei: These Packers could be better than those Packers, but only if Love can start playing more like he did a year ago — and there is reason to believe he can improve now that he’s healthy. He threw his 11th interception of the season Sunday, which tied his total for all of last season. That pick came in the end zone and could have cost the Packers the game. Their defense has been better (though it wasn’t very good against the Bears Sunday). The key as the weather turns could be their running game, which should be improved with Josh Jacobs.

A month from now, are we going to be talking about the Dolphins, Colts, both or neither as competing for the seventh seed in the AFC?

Pompei: The competition for the last wild-card spot in the AFC could come down to the Dolphins, Colts, Bengals and Broncos. The Dolphins might have more potential than the Colts because they could be buoyed by Tua Tagovailoa’s return. They have a manageable schedule down the stretch, with three games that look really challenging — at Green Bay and Houston, and home against the 49ers. The Colts have an easier road, as they should have a decent chance of winning every remaining game with the exception of next week against the Lions. The wild-card for them is reliant on the play and development of Anthony Richardson. If he plays like he did Sunday, the Colts very well could be in the playoffs.

Jones: I think it’s possible that both will be in the running. There’s very little margin for error, but both teams seem to be figuring things out and playing better than they did early in the season. The Colts defense has improved, and on Sunday Richardson executed better than he did prior to his benching. The Dolphins offense is far more effective now that Tagovailoa is back; he gives them hope. Looking at the schedules the rest of the way, the Colts (5-6) have winnable games in four of their next six contests (they play the Lions, Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants and Jaguars). They’re likely not beating the Lions, and the Broncos are iffy. But the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Jaguars are all very winnable. That means, they’re looking at 9-8? Maaaaybe 10-7?

Meanwhile, the Dolphins (4-6) have a little bit of a tougher road. They have realistic shots at beating the Patriots, Jets, Browns and Jets again, but the Packers, Texans and 49ers will be tough matchups. While they might be in the mix late, 8-9 isn’t likely going to get the job done. And of course, this is all hinging on the Broncos, currently the seventh seed, faltering. They have the Raiders, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs remaining.

Nguyen: The Colts defense has been improved after an abysmal start to the season, but I still don’t trust them. Richardson played one of the best games he’s played in the pros on Sunday but I still want to see more consistency from him (though it is certainly exciting to see how much he’s improved with his footwork and accuracy since his time on the bench). The Dolphins look to have the best chance to get into playoff contention. Tagovailoa is back and, although he hasn’t been as productive as he’s been when Miami’s offense was at its peak, he’s playing at a very high level.Tyreek Hill isn’t 100 percent and defenses have taken away the middle of the field, but in the last two games Tagovailoa has made several game-changing plays outside of structure.

The Dolphins defense seems to have found its stride. Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver is from the Mike Macdonald tree and that system takes a little time to learn because players have to learn everyone else’s job. Once they do, they can mix and match personnel and assignments and really confuse offenses. The Dolphins defenders look like they are getting to that point. This is a dangerous Miami team.

(Top photo: Timothy T. Ludwig / Getty Images)

The 2025 WNBA Draft will begin with the Dallas Wings.

The Wings won the top pick in the draft lottery Sunday, and with it are set up to draft a potential franchise cornerstone at the annual spring event.

Full 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery results:

1. Dallas Wings
2. Los Angeles Sparks
3. Chicago Sky
4. Washington Mystics

The Wings had 45.4 percent odds to land the top pick after entering the lottery with the rights to swap first-round picks with the Sky because of a trade in the 2023 offseason.

Sunday’s event might come to be referred to as the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes, as the UConn star begins this year’s college season as the presumptive No. 1 pick. But Bueckers is far from the only talented player who could hear her name called early in the draft. USC forward Kiki Iriafen, Notre Dame guard Olivia Miles and French forward Dominique Malonga highlight a list of potential players who could all make significant contributions to whatever WNBA franchise calls their names.

The draft will be held Monday, April 14.

What this means for Dallas

Curt Miller coached the 2024 season for the Los Angeles Sparks as if the team needed one more rebuilding year before welcoming Bueckers in 2025. Now, Miller gets the franchise-changing guard, but in Dallas, where he is the new general manager. The Wings had an injury-riddled 2024, but are loaded with talent to surround the selfless superstar rookie, including All-Stars Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally. Dallas has been missing a point guard to organize its offense, and that’s where Bueckers will slot in. She’s a disciplined ball handler who doesn’t commit turnovers and doesn’t hijack the offense for herself despite being a phenomenal scorer.  

The Wings were also the worst defense in the league in 2024, and Bueckers gives them some structural integrity in the backcourt. She’s a big guard who won’t get overwhelmed by WNBA point guards. If Dallas can keep Sabally, adding in Bueckers will get them back to contention very soon. — Sabreena Merchant, women’s basketball writer

How did the rest of the lottery shake out?

Chicago and Washington were projected to land at 3 and 4, respectively, which is where they finished. As a result, the only team to have its fortunes negatively impacted by the lottery is Los Angeles. A year after the Sparks jumped up to nab the No. 2 pick to select Cameron Brink, they fall down a slot, where they could also draft another former Stanford forward in Kiki Iriafen. Iriafen is spending her final college season in Los Angeles at USC, about three miles away from where the Sparks play. — Merchant

How were the odds and picks determined?

Lottery odds are determined by the two-year cumulative records of the four teams that did not make the playoffs in 2024. With the 25-55 record, the Sparks had the most assigned combinations (442 out of 1,000) and were guaranteed at least a top-three pick. Dallas and Chicago both had combined 31-49 records over the past two years and entered the draft with 227 combinations each for the top pick. However, because of a February 2023 trade that sent guard Marina Mabrey to the Chicago Sky, Dallas had the right to swap first-round picks with the Sky. Washington had a 33-47 record over the past two seasons and had 104 combinations to win the top pick. 

After the first pick was determined, the four lottery balls will then be back into the machine and will again be drawn to determine the second pick. The franchise with the lowest two-year record whose combinations did not come up with the first two drawings was given the third pick and the remaining franchise the fourth selection. — Merchant

Full 2025 WNBA Draft Order

The Golden State Valkyries will make the fifth pick in each of the three rounds of the 2025 WNBA Draft. However, the first round of this year’s draft will still only have 12 selections as the Las Vegas Aces pick was rescinded after the WNBA found the franchise violated league rules regarding impermissible player benefits and workplace policies. 

1. Wings
2. Sparks
3. Sky
4. Mystics
5. Valkyries
6. Washington from Atlanta Dream via Dallas
7. New York Liberty from Phoenix Mercury
8. Indiana Fever
9. Seattle Storm
10. Sky from Connecticut Sun
11. Minnesota Lynx
12. Mercury

(Photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)

No. 2 Ohio State and No. 5 Indiana held their spots in the AP Top 25 college football poll Sunday, setting up the third top-five matchup in the Big Ten this season for the Buckeyes.

Oregon remained No. 1 for a fifth consecutive week and is the unanimous choice for the third time after escaping Wisconsin with a three-point win. The Buckeyes are followed by No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Penn State and Indiana in an unchanged top five.

Tennessee’s loss to Georgia and BYU being upset by Kansas shook up the rest of the top 10. The Bulldogs jumped three spots to No. 8 after having their streak of 60 top-10 appearances in a row snapped last week. The Volunteers dropped four spots to No. 10 and the Cougars fell seven places to No. 14 after their unbeaten season was ended at home by the Jayhawks.

The rest of the top 10 includes No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Alabama and No. 9 Ole Miss.

The Big Ten and SEC hold nine of the top 10 spots, with Notre Dame the only team from outside those conferences. Miami from the ACC at No. 11 is otherwise the highest ranked team from a conference other than the Big Ten and SEC, followed by No. 12 Boise State from the Mountain West. BYU is the top-ranked Big 12 team at No. 14.

Others receiving votes: Missouri 56, Memphis 38, Kansas State 36, Syracuse 21, Louisville 15, Pittsburgh 6, LSU 6, Louisiana 5, Vanderbilt 4, Colorado State 2, Duke 2, James Madison 2, Georgia Tech 1

The Buckeyes cruised past Northwestern on Saturday and the Hoosiers were off, leading into Indiana’s biggest regular-season game ever. The only other top-five matchup in Indiana history was in the 1968 Rose Bowl, when the fourth-ranked Hoosiers lost to No. 1 USC.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes will be playing their third top-five matchup this season after losing at Oregon and winning at Penn State on the road. This will be Ohio State’s 46th top-five matchup all-time — including bowls and conference title games — four fewer than Oklahoma for the most. Ohio State is 23-21-1 in such games.

The Buckeyes will also become the first team since LSU in 2011 to play three top-five matchups in a regular season. It will be the eighth time in AP poll history, dating to 1936, that a team has played in three top-five matchups in the regular season. The fifth AP top-five matchup of the regular season ties 1996 and 1943 for the most.

Indiana comes into the game 1-70 against AP top-five teams, beating only Purdue in 1967. Ohio State is 36-46-6.

GO DEEPER

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In and out

The bottom of the rankings got a major makeover after five teams ranked 19th or lower lost Saturday.

LSU and Kansas State both fell out of the rankings for the first time this season. The Tigers lost for the fourth time this season at Florida and are unranked for the first time since mid-October 2022, coach Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge. The Wildcats (7-3) took a third loss, falling at home to Arizona State.

Missouri (7-3) fell out again after its third loss, to South Carolina, as did Louisville (6-4) after its fourth, a stunning upset and late-game collapse at Stanford.

No. 21 Arizona State (8-2) is ranked for the first time since Oct. 10, 2021, after beating Kansas State. No. 22 Iowa State (8-2) is back in the rankings and the Big 12 title race after snapping a two-game losing streak by beating Cincinnati.

No. 23 UNLV (8-2) reached the rankings for the first time in program history in September and fell out after one week. The Rebels are back, bolstered by early-season victories against Kansas and Houston from the Big 12 and a five-point loss to Mountain West rival Boise State. No. 24 Illinois (7-3) also rejoined the rankings after beating Michigan State handily. The Illini had previously spent seven weeks toward the bottom of the Top 25. — Ralph Russo, national college football writer

How Matt voted

• There are a lot of bunched-up teams on the ballot this week, making me wish we could include ties. I’ve been a bit lower on Notre Dame than most for much of the season — the Irish have been dominant lately, but the NIU loss still holds them back in my eyes — and thus my top nine spots are all taken up by the Big Ten and SEC after BYU’s loss to Kansas, with the Irish 10th.

From the Big Ten, I have Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana in the top three, with Penn State fifth. In the SEC, I have Texas fourth, with Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia and Tennessee almost inseparable from No. 6 to No. 9. And I can’t say I feel good about anything beyond Oregon and Ohio State being No. 1 and No. 2.

Texas has a great defense but a flimsy resume, and the next four SEC teams, all with two losses, are nearly impossible to order because of a combination of head-to-head results (Tennessee beat Alabama, which beat Georgia, which beat Tennessee) and bad losses (Ole Miss to Kentucky, Alabama to Vanderbilt, Tennessee to Arkansas). And then there’s Texas A&M, down at 15th at 8-2, lacking a marquee win but controlling its own destiny in the SEC race if it can beat Auburn and Texas. I disagree with the poll having Georgia ahead of Ole Miss after last week’s Rebels thumping of the Bulldogs, but there’s also no perfect answer.

I’d say this will all sort itself and a logical order will present itself, but this time, with a 16-team SEC … maybe not?

• Some weeks, I wish I could rank 35 teams. Other weeks, it’s more like 20. This ballot felt much more like the latter after Kansas State, Missouri, Washington State, LSU, Louisville and Pitt all lost. I ended up keeping Kansas State and Missouri on my ballot and moving in Tulane, Iowa State and Illinois. I seriously considered Syracuse and UNLV and didn’t really consider any of the four-loss teams.

• One bottom of the rankings move I don’t regret: I had Arizona State on my ballot at No. 25 last week, and the Sun Devils more than justified that ranking by winning at Kansas State to earn their first poll appearance since October 2021. — Matt Brown, college sports managing editor and AP poll voter

Is Texas overrated?

As Matt points out, lining up the SEC teams is difficult because of all the head-to-head issues. I would be inclined to encourage Matt and other voters to push Texas into that pack of two-loss teams because of the Longhorns’ decisive loss to Georgia at home and general good fortune with the rest of their first SEC schedule.

Personally, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas and Tennessee would be my order of just those teams.

But at least Matt got this right where the other AP voters, I think, whiffed. Honor the week-old head-to-head result and keep Ole Miss ahead of Georgia. The voters had the Bulldogs a spot in front. I get it, Ole Miss has worse losses — though I hate that term — against Kentucky and LSU, neither of which is ranked. Georgia’s losses are to the Rebels and Alabama. Voters also generally give teams a little more leeway for road losses. The Bulldogs lost at Oxford and Tuscaloosa.

But Ole Miss won so decisively, I’d like to have that continue to be acknowledged.

Same goes for No. 14 BYU and No. 13 SMU. In fact, this is probably an even more egregious miss. The Cougars won in Dallas earlier in the season. That’s certainly a better loss — hate that one, too — than tripping up at home against Kansas (4-6), but SMU can’t even make the Georgia argument with several other marquee victories.

My guess is after watching BYU pull off a series of great escapes in the last month, voters were already feeling skeptical about the Cougars and then reacted strongly when those concerns were validated. — Russo

What’s next?

Week 13 of the season is packed with what can be categorized as big games nobody saw coming before the season.

Aside from Indiana-Ohio State as a top-five matchup …

No. 18 Army faces No. 6 Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium. This game should be broadcast by NBC in black and white. The last time the Black Knights and Fighting Irish played with both teams ranked was 1958 in South Bend. The pinnacle of the rivalry was in the 1940s when they played four consecutive top-five matchups — including two No. 1 vs. No. 2 games — at Yankee Stadium.

No. 14 BYU travels to No. 21 Arizona State. The Big 12 race has taken quite a turn. The Cougars and Sun Devils’ first meeting since 2021 is the third ranked matchup between the schools and 29th overall.

Elsewhere, No. 3 Texas hosts Kentucky, No. 4 Penn State visits Minnesota, No. 7 Alabama visits Oklahoma and No. 9 Ole Miss visits Florida.

Required reading

(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)